Ask around and almost every homebuyer out there wants to know if there’s a way to get a better deal. And just about every seller wants to know if they’ll still get top dollar.
The honest answer for Monmouth and Ocean counties right now is that neither side has the clean advantage they had a few years ago. Leverage has stopped being a property of the market and started being a property of the individual listing.
The market still leans toward sellers on paper
By the textbook definition, this is not a buyer’s market. Months of supply across our two counties has been running in the low single digits, against the five-to-six months that defines equilibrium. Statewide inventory has grown, but it remains roughly 22% below where it stood in 2019.
Prices reflect that. Median single-family values have kept climbing at a moderate pace rather than falling. Nothing in the local data suggests a correction.
So if you’re a seller reading headlines about a national buyer’s market and panicking, don’t. Those headlines are describing Sun Belt metros that built aggressively through the boom. Our supply constraint is structural: the towns people want are largely built out, and a large share of homeowners are sitting on sub-4% mortgages they don’t want to give up.
But buyers have real leverage they didn’t have in 2021
Here’s what changed, and it’s substantial.
Time. Days on market have stretched — buyers now get roughly 55 days to make a decision where two years ago they had closer to 38. That sounds bureaucratic. It isn’t. It’s the difference between waiving an inspection to win and actually getting one.
Contingencies. The era of routinely waiving inspection and appraisal protections to compete has largely passed. You can keep the safeguards that exist to protect you.
Choice. More listings means you can compare rather than chase. That’s a genuine shift in posture.
Stale listings. This is where the real money is. A home listed 45 days with a price cut behind it is a different negotiation from a home listed last Tuesday.
The split that actually matters
The useful question isn’t “buyer’s market or seller’s market.” It’s which side of the split a specific house falls on.
Priced correctly and in good condition: still sells fast, often at or near asking, sometimes with multiple offers. The seller holds the cards. A buyer trying to negotiate hard here will simply lose the house to someone who didn’t.
Priced above what comparable sales support: sits, accumulates days on market, and eventually takes a price cut. Nationally, listings priced more than about 5% above defensible value have been averaging around 82 days on market. Every one of those weeks costs the seller carrying costs and transfers leverage to whoever is patient.
Two houses on the same street can be in completely different markets. That’s the whole story of 2026.
If you’re buying
Read days on market before you read the listing photos. A fresh listing under two weeks old has almost no give. A listing at 45-plus days with a prior reduction signals a seller carrying real monthly costs, and that’s where an offer below asking gets a serious response.
Lead with comparable sales rather than a number you’d like to pay. An offer backed by what similar homes actually closed at in the last 90 days is harder to dismiss than one that reads as a lowball.
And negotiate the whole deal, not just the price. A seller contribution toward a rate buydown often moves your monthly payment more than an equivalent price reduction — worth running both ways with your lender before you decide what to ask for.
If you’re selling
Your first three weeks are the entire ballgame. Attention is highest at launch, and pricing to capture it beats pricing to leave negotiating room.
The instinct to list high and “come down later” is the most expensive mistake available in this market. Buyers now have time to notice that your listing has been sitting, and a price cut announces weakness in a way that an accurate initial price never does.
Condition matters more than it used to, because buyers who have real choice exercise it. And if you’re above the $1 million mark, build the graduated transfer fee into your net calculation early — since July 2025 that’s a seller cost, and it’s tiered.
So who actually has the upper hand?
Sellers of well-priced, well-maintained homes in desirable towns. Buyers who are pre-approved, patient, and willing to walk away.
The people without leverage are the sellers who priced on hope and the buyers who show up unprepared expecting a market that resembles the national headlines.
Which describes your situation depends on your specific house, your specific town, and your specific timeline — and that’s a conversation worth having with real numbers rather than general market commentary.
Market conditions described reflect data available as of August 2026 and vary considerably by town, price point, and property type. For figures specific to your neighborhood, ask for a current comparative market analysis.
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